By: Margo Rawlings
Sports Editor
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who initially ran for the Democratic nomination for president and is now an independent presidential candidate, currently seems to be a threat to both President Joe Biden, who is seeking reelection, and former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Although polls show that RFK Jr. currently receives about 10 percent of Americans’ support, both parties worry that he will draw votes away from their respective candidates, especially in crucial battleground states.
Various political science professors such as David B. Cohen from the University of Akron and Valdosta State’s Bernard Tamas believe that polling six-months prior to the election makes predictions very difficult, but both agree that RFK Jr. will impact the race. Tamas explained that, “As voters become more familiar with RFK Jr.’s policy stances, the threat to Trump could increase. While RFK Jr. has a privileged last name and comes from a family with a storied Democratic legacy, many of his policy positions are more likely to appeal to conservative voters, including the peddling of his anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and his pro-Israel position in the Gaza crisis.” With experts predicting the 2024 election will be a tight race, losing votes to Kennedy and other third party candidates could cost Trump or Biden the election. In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton narrowly lost three swing states to Donald Trump; in all three cases, third party candidate Jill Stein got enough votes to secure Clinton, had they backed her instead of Stein.
Moreover, if Kennedy accomplishes his claims of attending the presidential debates, he will create greater risks for the Democratic and Republican parties. Currently, Kennedy does not meet the criteria to participate in the two upcoming debates in June and September. Biden and Trump have both agreed to participate, with CNN hosting the first debate in late June and ABC News hosting the second on Sept. 10. In order to qualify, candidates must hit 15 percent in four national polls that survey registered and likely to vote voters. Additionally, they must appear on enough state ballots “to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency” prior to the debates. So far, Kennedy polled 15 percent in only two of CNN’s four qualifying polls. Despite this, his campaign manager, Amaryllis Fox says they “anticipate fulfilling all participation criteria” by the June deadline and “look forward to offering American voters the three-way debate they deserve.” Kennedy himself took to social media platform X, claiming that “Presidents Trump and Biden are colluding to lock America into a head-to-head match-up that 70% say they do not want. They are trying to exclude me from their debate because they are afraid I would win. Keeping viable candidates off the debate stage undermines democracy.”
(Sources: ABC News, CNN, Newsweek, Politico)